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It comes down to Beth Mason vs. Dawn Zimmer
With 24 hours to go before the polls open for a winner-take-all election, this race has decisively come down to Beth Mason vs. Dawn Zimmer.
A week ago, Hoboken411 moved Frank Raia out of his original place, to the Second Tier, leaving Zimmer and Mason alone among the pack. The weekly paper did the same thing on the Sunday front page declaring, “Zimmer and Mason are seen as the frontrunners in the mayor’s race.” Now that they took the week to catch up to us we’re prepared to go a step further.
Raia and Glatt fading, their voters may reconsider
Reputable sources in multiple camps say flash polls show Zimmer and Mason each have more than three times the voter support of Frank Raia or Kim Glatt. If the polls are correct, it means Raia and Glatt would have to quadruple their support in 24 hours to win the race. Even if every undecided voter went to Raia and Glatt they would still be two candidates competing for third place. The fact that Raia and Glatt are mining votes from the same base of support has been an issue from the start, with both sides making unsuccessful attempts to get the other out of the race.
As 411 called it last week, this is a mutual destruction society. With the race breaking down to Mason vs. Zimmer, people who declared as Raia or Glatt voters may reconsider their decision behind the curtain and go with the person with the best shot at defeating Zimmer. At this stage of the race – that person is clearly Mason.
Raia can’t escape history of losses, higher BoE spending
You’ll be hard pressed to find somebody in Hoboken who doesn’t like Frank Raia, but he’s been running for office for decades and has lost more times than he’s won. Even some of his allies confide they tried to convince Pupie to sit this one out after the humiliating defeat Kids First served up to him in April. In response Frank has run the best campaign of his life, turning to the “internets” in a big way to spread his message. In the end – it wasn’t enough time to build new support or heal old wounds.
As a parting shot, Raia offers this soundbite of Dawn Zimmer endorsing him for public office:[dewplayer:http://hoboken411.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/zimmer-4-raya-0602.mp3]
But Frank didn’t win the Freeholder election either. Had Kim Glatt not joined the race, Raia would have had a much better shot to line up Hoboken People behind him. In the final days of the campaign there is also an allegation Raia improperly handled absentee ballots that candidates are not supposed to touch. An investigation is underway, and Pupie denies any wrongdoing.
Judge Glatt doesn’t rule. Case dismissed.
The formula was simple enough: Take an attractive, born and raised former Municipal Judge and run her as the “outsider” who can take the votes that would not otherwise go to Zimmer and Mason for a longshot chance at a win. There were two big problems with this strategy. The first was Frank Raia’s decision to run, which split the potential universe of voters. The second was the existence of Hoboken411. In a pre-411 world, Glatt would have been much more of a factor in this race, as the local press used to take pretty much everything a candidate said at face value with no additional digging.
In the current 411 world, homegrown politicians don’t get the same pass they once did…
Just ask Chris Campos, who would still be the Fourth Ward councilman if not for 411. At least that’s what Dawn Zimmer used to say until we started holding her to her campaign promises. Now the best Glatt can do is take enough voters to give Zimmer a slim plurality in this race. Whether or not that happens is up to the voters, who will have their final say tomorrow when the polls open at 6am.
This one ain’t over ‘til it’s over, but it has come down to a race between Zimmer and Mason.
For more Hoboken411 coverage, read: