First big snow of 2016

What dedication! Whether rain or snow, etc.!

1/23/2016 12pm update:

Wow, take a look at this mail man! Seems like they really respect their motto!

What dopes put money in a parking meter during a blizzard?

1/23/2016 10am update:

Jeez Louise! Some fool was actually putting money in a stupid robotic parking meter earlier today. Really? C’mon!

And some pooches get pampered during the storm!

Winter: IT’S ON in Hoboken {BLIZZARD}

1/23/2016 8am Update:

Yep. That is correct. It’s snowing, and the weather forecasters were “right!” Pretty cool they were truly able to “predict the future!” Too bad the same cannot be true for Powerball numbers. Shucks.

Anyway, the snow is coming down – and even some businesses downtown are still open. McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts, and some bodegas. Good to know I can buy an orange and an Egg McMuffin if I so choose.

What do you think the storm totals for Hoboken will be? A foot? Two feet?

(Don’t forget the Parking Dude if you are too lazy to shovel your own car out!)

Big snow watch Hoboken – what will be the end result?

1/22/2016 update:

I find this big snow storm quite funny (and amazing) since we announced the potential last Sunday.

It comes down to (programmed) weather “models.” Those algorithms are set up by humans, with weather data (via devices) from previous events. All in an effort to “predict” future happenings.

hoboken blizzard prediction january 23 2016 720x366 - First big snow of 2016

We monitor what weather enthusiasts chat about regarding such potentially “epic” events (like some places near D.C. can possibly get four feet or more of the white fluffy stuff). Yes, these events are relatively rare – but not entirely uncommon. But what fascinates us the most is the disparity between weather forecasting “models.”

Case in point, is the 1996 Blizzard that crippled the northeast. Almost until the very end, they were predicting amounts that were not so bad (say “6-12”), but the storm could not be predicted – and people got several feet of snow.

This massive field of what is pretty much “energy” of some kind – can throw scientists for a loop. This storm has many similarities to that 1996 storm. Will it stump the forecast models again? Who knows.

Some models (such as the “NAM”) are predicting around two feet of snow for the Hoboken area. Many weather nuts like to bash that model for it’s history of being inaccurate most of the time. Instead, they rely on “GFS” and “EURO” models as their reliable ones.

hoboken blizzard january 23 2016 720x366 - First big snow of 2016

The “reliable” models have around a 10″ prediction for Hoboken (with the winds that lead to the “blizzard” warning.) Don’t you find that “blizzard” definition weird? All it means is three hours of certain winds and certain limited visibility. You could have a three-hour storm with 6″ of snow, and it will still be considered a “blizzard.” When I was a kid, “blizzard” meant a couple feet of snow. Those wacky scientists!

Gradients – a few miles make a difference?

What blows my mind about these predictions (and actual outcomes) is that it really does come down to location.

snow differences NJ blizzard January 23 2016 720x430 - First big snow of 2016

One place may get two feet of snow – while somewhere just 20 miles north (or whatever direction it may be), may just get 4″. That is what is amazing about weather in general.

But this storm is beyond just “north and south,” it appears to have many dynamics affecting the outcome (like a high pressure system to the north for instance).

There are so many other factors at play here too – like how much moisture this storm system siphons from the Gulf of Mexico, etc. Crazy to think about what goes into an epic weather event, right?

We get what we get – and that’s what we get

Just a day or two after we announced the potential for this storm, I stopped caring what happened or didn’t happen.

If someone “says” one thing (i.e., “TWO FEET WILL FALL! RUN FOR THE HILLS!”) or another (“NOTHING WILL HAPPEN!”) doesn’t really matter. What will happen will happen.

I tend to lean on the side that more will come than they predict – but I’m (happily) prepared to accept a lot less. Sure, it’s fun when two or three feet of snow fall (for a few hours), but it becomes a nuisance for weeks afterward. So sure, I don’t want any snow at all! But the fascination of a relatively rare event is enthralling to say the least.


hoboken blizzard 2016 snow gradient 720x368 - First big snow of 2016

Possibility of first big snow storm for Hoboken?

1/17/2016 Original Post:

Area weather forecasters are currently giddy about the potential that exists for a major east coast snowstorm by the end of this week. The first big snow of the year perhaps?

While it’s never prudent to take computer models as gospel five or six days out, amateur enthusiasts feel confident that something big will hit somewhere between D.C. and Boston.

Some have even noted eerie similarities (in conditional data) to the epic storm our area received two decades ago.

January 1996 Blizzard snowfall totals 647x500 - First big snow of 2016

What remains to be seen is the exact location of the the low pressure center, and how it affects the rain / snow line. For all anyone knows, this can also “go out to sea” and miss disrupting populated areas altogether..

I kind of hope it misses. Because Hoboken doesn’t have a good track record with snow clean-up. And who wants to see all the parking bollards and curb extensions destroyed by plows?

Hoboken NJ first big snow of 2016 prediction 720x432 - First big snow of 2016

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Saturday, January 23, 2016 1:40 am

Don’t believe a word about what they’re saying about me. I will not deliver the snow. I’m going out to sea as soon as I feel fit. A bit hungover from my romp in the south. Sorry guys. See you in a decade or so.

Friday, January 22, 2016 5:43 pm

buy beer!

Reply to  beerzgood
Friday, January 22, 2016 10:32 pm

We stocked up on box wine. Something about a tap of 4 bottles is satisfying. Even more when you have a whole pile of them!

But I just realized that I don’t think I’ll be able to get my greasy breakfast sandwich tomorrow. You think anyone will be open in the morning? Now I’m depressed.

Friday, January 22, 2016 3:45 pm

They just upped the totals for everyone. I’d rather do other things this weekend than clean up.

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