More recessionary times ahead?

3/4/2010:

Are you preparing for the next bad economic wave?

You hear so-called reports of the “economy is on the road to recovery,” and how the stimulus packages and health care reform are necessary to kick-start the country.

If you’re hanging on to every little report that the news spews out – then you probably will be a bit upset if you read The Great Recession of 2011-2012 from this month’s American Spectator magazine.

Author James Srodes paints a bleak outlook for at least the next decade or more saying “This (next) recession is going to be a doozy. And the aftershocks will be felt long after President Hillary Clinton leaves the White House in 2024.”

You should have known it was coming

Srodes says what he’s sure is coming should be of no surprise to anyone, calling all the talking heads “chat-show economists” and “self-congratulatory” politicians. But adds that the upcoming downturn for the worse won’t necessarily be apocalyptic in nature, but rather a humbling reversal to the once-optimistic way it used to be for Americans. More belt-tightening and cautiousness than ever.

The article also tries to point out that these daily and weekly fluctuations in the stock market aren’t accurate indications of how our economy is doing, because it’s not the citizens who are trading commodities and stocks – but rather the bloated investment houses riding the waves of speculation.

He goes on to tell a sobering tale of Real Estate statistics, which are often under-reported – with “uncounted hundreds of thousands of vacant houses, condo and offices for which there is no rational prospect of a buyer during 2010 or perhaps ever.”

More is said about how unemployment numbers are also not telling the whole story, as the numbers don’t even count those who just threw in the towel. And those that are working (especially in retail), are getting hours cut, “which would be the envy of the Frenchman…” And points out that we shouldn’t ignore the many bubbles forming (and bursting) worldwide “New bubbles are forming all around us, in the commodity markets, in Hong Kong real estate, in the troubling data coming out of China and other Asian economies, all just waiting to buckle. Can you say Dubai? Greece?”

Ronald Reagan is quoted ““Nancy and I always believed that if you didn’t want the kids to overspend their allowances, you didn’t give them the money in the first place” and Srodes warns readers not to email him about “The myth of Bill Clinton’s surpluses; they didn’t happen. The last federal budget to have a genuine surplus of tax revenues over outlays was Lyndon Johnson’s $3 billion budget surplus for fiscal 1969.”

After talking about the misconceptions about energy sources, he points out that the days of estimating the true cost of human activities are over and – “Old solutions are increasingly disconnected from critical new challenges dressed in familiar terms—the need for new jobs, new products, market regulation, environmental responsibility, and truly global prosperity for all instead of competing regional advantages that disenfranchise entire races of people.”

He concludes: “Now ask yourself, how long will it take to reclaim the empty neighborhoods in Detroit, the empty condos in Las Vegas, or Phoenix, or, for that matter, in the McMansion-style suburbs that surround Washington, D.C.? What new jobs can be created to absorb the millions who have not only lost their jobs but who have stopped looking? What will those jobs make, and who will buy what is being offered?

Buddy, can you spare a dollar? Or maybe a Krugerrand?”

I found the article to be fantastic and truthful. Do you agree, or is it just hogwash?

Leave a Reply

12 Comments on "More recessionary times ahead?"

MidnightRacer
Member

It’s sort of irrelevant whether or not it was planned or accidental, you’re still going to be out of work, or unable to pay your bills. Gold is nice and all, but what are you gonna protect that gold with? And, who is going to pay you the vale of the gold you hold? Currently, if you go to sell your gold to the jeweler, they’ll offer you roughly 20%-30% of the value, citing overhead costs (meling, processing, crafting, etc) for the reduction in what they’ll offer. So, for $100,000 worth of gold, you might get an offer of $20,000.

Maybe another country in which its government behaves more like the U.S. before 1913.

Easy-E
Member

Ammunition sales have gone up because the retards think that Obama is a comin’ ta git their gunz.

BarbaraR56
Member
BarbaraR56

JMHO but just how much negativity should the reporters spew out? Would you rather hear run not walk to your local CVS, Walgreens, Wal-Mart, Duane Reade etc. and purchase the generic drug of choice to end your life? Don’t over exaggerate the little positivity, nor over exaggerate the negativity. For most of us, not having grown up with wealth, the economy just taught us to do away with luxury items like manis, pedis, spas, tanning salons and dining out when we should be eating at home.

The United States has come out of world wars, recessions, inflations etc. renew your spirituality and faith in your chosen elected officials, not too mention Homeland Security. Let’s all hope we learned from 9/11, I’d like to think we did and the necessary steps have been implemented to prevent another disaster. We all have one vote, we use it to change the politicians we think need changing, do whatever we can to change our outlook. The only people really making money right now are the Psychotherapists, Counselors, Pharmeceutical Companies etc. Would you want to wait 18 months for a necessary surgery? Maybe we all should use our frequent flyer miles, rewards etc. and google an affordable accommodation in another country today. Please, people, have some faith.

bmacqueens
Member
Nearly everything has a price. (Air would be extraordinarily valuable if someone could figure out how to choke off the supply, but for now, it’s free.) The issue is not that the underwater assets are worthless, but rather that the owner / bankruptcy trustee / bank / etc. is not willing to sell that asset for a price that a buyer in the same market is willing to pay. This was so obvious that I cannot believe that anything other than rank greed and stupidity was driving the train, in Washington and in the board room. Let us imagine …. Population – approx. constant, at least in the short run Currency Inflation – nil Supply of housing units – skyrocketing Nominal prices for those housing units – also skyrocketing Cash flow to purchase those units – highly leveraged, at temporary low interest rates that have a 100% certain date on which the rate will jump, and the long-term debt service will be far in excess of actual ability to pay Any schmuck in Econ. 101 should have been able to tell you, before midterm break, that this was a recipe for prices to come crashing back to Earth. But not our MBA president. Nope – his administration saw no problem with this little national game of musical chairs. Until Willing to Pay equals Willing to Sell, things will continue to be F’d up. Anything else is just delaying the inevitable. While I generally favor the Current Occupant, it’s pretty clear… Read more »
Hobbes
Member
Hobbes

This article doesn’t even scratch the surface of the troubles we face. If you really want to be scared – or want to see the future – take a look at these articles and see why we’re doomed. Some of the materials covered are technical but you’ll get the idea:

Economic Black Hole: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover: theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archive...-and-is-simply-not-going-to-recover

Is The Government Misrepresenting Unemployment By 32%? zerohedge.com/article/government-misrepresenting-unemployment-32

Who Is Responsible For The Non-Stop Market Rally Since March? zerohedge.com/article/trimtabs-asks...-rally-march-gives-some-suggestions

Long story short: the Feds are manipulating the market with our tax dollars in a giant ponzi scheme, driving up our debt which will cause hyperinflation and doesn’t correct the underlying problems.

Buy gold people… its the only currency that will still have value in 5 years.

Easy-E
Member

Gold… Sounds like guns, bottled water and rations is a better idea.

In response to Hobbes who said:
This article doesn’t even scratch the surface of the troubles we face. If you really want to be scared – or want to see the future – take a look at these articles and see why we’re doomed. Some of the materials covered are technical but you’ll get the idea:

Economic Black Hole: 20 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover: theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archive...-and-is-simply-not-going-to-recover

Is The Government Misrepresenting Unemployment By 32%? zerohedge.com/article/government-misrepresenting-unemployment-32

Who Is Responsible For The Non-Stop Market Rally Since March? zerohedge.com/article/trimtabs-asks...-rally-march-gives-some-suggestions

Long story short: the Feds are manipulating the market with our tax dollars in a giant ponzi scheme, driving up our debt which will cause hyperinflation and doesn’t correct the underlying problems.

Buy gold people… its the only currency that will still have value in 5 years.

jazzeru
Member
jazzeru
check out ammunition sales date for the last two years, stores can’t even keep stock on the shelves they’re selling so fast. its oddly refreshing to see some people get it. eventually the tab has to be paid and very few people seem to realize that the govt is putting the tab on US while continuing to support policies that transfer wealth to the elites of our country. the flick of the lights will come in the form of interest rates rising on the long end of the curve, slowly at first then rocketing up as speculators look to capitalize on our widening credit spreads. our economy in its current form is a zombie propped up by massive govt support that it can’t afford to maintain. we need unprecedented transformation, and our workforce needs to become alot more flexible in terms of innovating and adapting new skills. i’m an optimist and i do sincerely hope we succeed but its going to be a tough slog ahead. our govt is largely inneffective at a local (hoboken!!) and federal level in dealing with these issues constructively and we will need wholesale change in our political order to solve some of these issues. one proposal that will gain traction is a VAT tax, i’d be interested to hear peoples thoughts on this. every other modern industrialized country on earth has a VAT and it would go a long way towards plugging some holes in this sinking ship. thoughts!? In response to Easy-E who… Read more »
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