One Week until The Election!
Who’s moving up – and who’s moving down
Polls will open for the Mayoral election in less than 7 days. Here’s a look at how things have changed since the September 17th filing deadline, when 411 broke the candidates down into three tiers. Originally, Tier #1 included Dawn Zimmer, Beth Mason and Frank Raia, Tier #2 was Nathan Brinkman and Kimberly Glatt, and the third tier had everyone else (for reasons outlined in the original filing deadline article).
Tier #1 is now Zimmer and Mason
There is no doubt that the “power of incumbency” means Acting Mayor slash Council President Dawn Zimmer is the one to beat in this race. The fact so many people are in it is also an advantage for Zimmer. However, she doesn’t have anything close to majority support in this winner-take-all race. As the weeks turn into mere days before the election, those opposed to the part-time photographer see the only way to defeat her is to drive support behind a single opponent. Councilwoman Beth Mason’s plan of action for Hoboken has been hitting mailboxes at a time where all of the major candidates are taking aim at Zimmer’s weaknesses. After three months at the helm Zimmer has found many positions in government for her friends and allies, but has been sitting on the bad news budget that could torpedo her election chances.
Zimmer’s green posse is shrinking
Zimmer’s green posse has settled back to the size it was in May. Her call for a second pre-election group photo yielded a far smaller crowd than the pictures taken before her June one-on-one against Peter Cammarano. The pictures to prove it are on her own campaign website (unlike the budget promises she made in June, which have been pulled down). And yes, that’s string-puller and potential future Business Administrator Michael Lenz lurking in the back row of the right side of the photo below. Zimmer is supposedly the one to beat, but with each day (and council meeting) that went by, she became more beatable. A poor campaign hurt Mason in the spring, while a stronger fall campaign is helping her now.
Tier #2 is now Raia and Glatt
Frank Raia dropped to Tier #2 with Kimberly Glatt not because he isn’t working hard to get his message across, but because it doesn’t appear many people are listening. He still has his base of support (outlined here in depth) but it’s still not enough to win. Raia is having a hard time convincing people he can win the Mayor’s office when only months ago he failed to hold on to his Board of Education seat. Meanwhile, Glatt can’t move into the first tier as long as Raia is in the race. It’s like a mutual destruction pact. Both candidates are aiming primarily to the born and raised population, but neither seems to have gotten the memo that after decades of development and a 47% tax increase, the B&R vote is now the minority, especially in a November election.
Raia Tweets while Glatt Stacks
Raia is working a lot harder to attract newcomers to his message via the internet through YouTube videos (which have clocked low counts) Facebook and Twitter. Glatt on the other hand, has a weak website with broken links and no concrete plans. Unlike Raia’s loyal local supporters who are riding through town in Pupie’s new van, Glatt has taken a lot of heat for importing her street “support” from Union City by hiring Mayor/Senator Brian Stack’s estranged wife Katia to run her campaign. The idea that Glatt would make Hoboken a wholly-owned subsidiary of Stack’s Union City machine is not sitting well with many Hobokenites, both “old” and “new”.
Nathan Brinkman drops to Tier #3
A month ago, Nate Brinkman got a gift by being placed in Tier #2, but his far-right views and essentially non-existent campaign squandered it. Bret Schundler, he ain’t. Congratulations to Brinkman on the birth of his first child, who’s photo immediately made it into the campaign. That led some to start calling him “Republicammarano.” Physically Brinkman is the candidate who most resembles Cammarano with the short-cropped hair, height and build, politician smile and now a baby to boot. Brinkman is a Steve Lonegan Republican, and he’s getting no help from Chris Christie. State Republicans appear to be spending money only in towns they actually have a shot to win (go figure!)
The Third Tier is Hoboken Electoral Siberia
As for the rest of Tier #3, Everton Wilson and Patricia Waiters should have had the good sense of Sal DeMeo, who filed his petitions only to realize immediately he had no chance and took his name out of contention. Brinkman, Wilson and Waiters will be on the ballot as answers to three questions nobody asked.
How do you think the campaign is shaping up? Has your mind changed about the candidates since the filing deadline? Who is doing well and who is missing the boat in flood-prone Hoboken? On-topic comments are welcome below.